Week of 5-24-2009

Timing Model = 0.5
60% long, 40% cash

Global allocation of long positions
MSCI EAFE Index 30%
MCCI Emerging Markets Index 30%
Russell 3000 Index - U.S. 40%

Top U.S. Sectors
Precious Metals 3.5
U.S. Biotechnology 3.0
U.S. Health Care 2.5
U.S. Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution 2.5
U.S. Pharmaceuticals 2.5
U.S. Consumer Goods 2.0
Composite Internet 1.5
U.S. Mobile Telecommunications 1.5

Top Intl. ETFs
MSCI Brazil Index Fund 2
MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund 2
MSCI All Country Asia ex Japan Index Fund 2
MSCI Taiwan Index Fund 2
MSCI South Korea Index Fund 2
S&P Latin America 40 Index Fund 2
MSCI Austria Index Fund 2

Strategy 3
Money Market 16.7%
Precious Metals 16.7%
Emerging Markets 16.7%
Industrial Materials 16.7%
EAFE 16.7%
Agriculture 16.7%

Strategy 4
Precious Metals 25%
Emerging Markets 25%
Agriculture 25%
Industrial Materials 25%

Week of 5-17-2009

Timing Model = 0.5
70% long, 30% cash

Global allocation of long positions
MSCI EAFE Index 30%
MCCI Emerging Markets Index 30%
Russell 3000 Index - U.S. 40%

Top U.S. Sectors
U.S. Health Care 3.5
U.S. Biotechnology 3.0
Composite Internet 2.5
U.S. Pharmaceuticals 2.5
U.S. Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution 2.0
Precious Metals 2.0
U.S. Oil & Gas 1.5

Top Intl. ETFs
MSCI Brazil Index Fund 2
MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund 2
MSCI All Country Asia ex Japan Index Fund 2
MSCI Taiwan Index Fund 2
MSCI Sweden Index Fund 2
MSCI Singapore Index Fund 2
FTSE China (HK Listed) Index Fund 2
FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund 2
MSCI South Korea Index Fund 2
MSCI Hong Kong Index Fund 2

Strategy 3
Money Market 20%
Precious Metals 20%
Emerging Markets 20%
Industrial Materials 20%
EAFE 20%

Strategy 4
Precious Metals 25%
Emerging Markets 25%
Agriculture 25%
Industrial Materials 25%

Week of 5-10-2009

Timing Model = 0.5
60% long, 40% cash

Global allocation of long positions
MSCI EAFE Index 20%
MCCI Emerging Markets Index 30%
Russell 3000 Index - U.S. 50%

Top U.S. Sectors
Precious Metals 3.0
U.S. Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution 2.5
U.S. Pharmaceuticals 2.5
U.S. Health Care 2.0
U.S. Biotechnology 2.0
U.S. Consumer Services 1.5
Mid Cap Growth 1.5

Top Intl. ETFs
MSCI Brazil Index Fund 2
MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund 2
MSCI All Country Asia ex Japan Index Fund 2
MSCI Taiwan Index Fund 2
MSCI Sweden Index Fund 2
MSCI Singapore Index Fund 2

Strategy 3
Money Market 20%
Precious Metals 20%
Emerging Markets 20%
Industrial Materials 20%
EAFE 20%

Strategy 4
Precious Metals 25%
Emerging Markets 25%
Industrial Materials 25%
EAFE 25%

Not much has changed in my models recently. Intermediate term sentiment is signaling over optimism, and my trend indicators are mostly positive. I get the feeling everyone is looking for a pull back, but when will it happen? Nobody knows.

Week of 5-3-2009

Timing Model = 0.0
50% long, 50% cash

Global allocation of long positions
MSCI EAFE Index 20%
MCCI Emerging Markets Index 30%
Russell 3000 Index - U.S. 50%

Top U.S. Sectors
U.S. Health Care 3.5
U.S. Consumer Services 2.5
Precious Metals 3.0
Composite Internet 2.0
U.S. Pharmaceuticals 2.5
U.S. Consumer Goods 2.0
U.S. Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution 1.5

Top Intl. ETFs
MSCI Brazil Index Fund 2
FTSE China (HK Listed) Index Fund 2
FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund 2
MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund 2
MSCI South Korea Index Fund 2
MSCI All Country Asia ex Japan Index Fund 2
MSCI Taiwan Index Fund 2
MSCI South Africa Index Fund 2
MSCI Sweden Index Fund EWD 2

Strategy 3
Money Market 50%
Emerging Markets 50%

Strategy 4
U.S. Long Bonds 25%
Emerging Markets 25%
Precious Metals 25%
Agriculture 25%

Equities continue to plunge forward as sentiment continues to signal caution. Mid/Small caps are leading the pack along with Emerging Markets. Due to this strength, my timing model has moved back to fence sitting.

The key indicator to watch this week is the Value Line Composite and it's relationship to it's own 200 day moving average. A move below it's 200 day moving average would signal a defensive posture.