Timing Model = -1.0
30% long, 70% cash
Global allocation of long positions
MSCI EAFE Index 20%
MCCI Emerging Markets Index 30%
Russell 3000 Index - U.S. 50%
Top U.S. Sectors
U.S. Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution 3.5
U.S. Biotechnology 3.5
Composite Internet 2.5
U.S. Health Care 2.5
U.S. Consumer Services 2.0
Precious Metals 1.5
U.S. Pharmaceuticals 1.5
U.S. Oil & Gas 1.5
Top Intl. ETFs
MSCI Brazil Index Fund 2
FTSE China (HK Listed) Index Fund 2
FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund 2
MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund 2
MSCI South Korea Index Fund 2
MSCI All Country Asia ex Japan Index Fund 2
MSCI Taiwan Index Fund 2
MSCI South Africa Index Fund 2
MSCI Sweden Index Fund 2
Strategy 3
Money Market 33%
U.S. Long Bonds 33%
Precious Metals 33%
Strategy 4
U.S. Long Bonds 25%
Agriculture 25%
Precious Metals 25%
U.S. Small Caps 25%
Not much has changed from last week. The intermediate term bullish trend in prices is counterbalanced with too much optimism - on a short to medium term basis. The Value Line Composite has finally peaked above it's 200 day moving average, but that positive wasn't enough to outweigh negative sentiment.
This feels like an intermediate top in the making, but you never know.
Sunday, April 26, 2009
Sunday, April 19, 2009
Week of 4-19-2009
Timing Model = -1.0
30% long, 70% cash
Global allocation of long positions
MSCI EAFE Index 20%
MCCI Emerging Markets Index 30%
Russell 3000 Index - U.S. 50%
Top U.S. Sectors
U.S. Health Care 3.0
Composite Internet 2.5
U.S. Consumer Services 2.0
U.S. Pharmaceuticals 2.0
U.S. Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution 2.0
U.S. Biotechnology 2.0
Precious Metals 1.5
U.S. Oil & Gas 1.5
Top Intl. ETFs
MSCI Brazil Index Fund 2
FTSE China (HK Listed) Index Fund 2
FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund 2
MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund 2
MSCI South Korea Index Fund 2
MSCI All Country Asia ex Japan Index Fund 2
MSCI Hong Kong Index Fund 2
Strategy 3
Money Market 50%
U.S. Long Bonds 50%
Strategy 4
U.S. Long Bonds 25%
Agriculture 25%
Precious Metals 25%
U.S. Small Caps 25%
There are dark clouds on the horizon as a couple of the sentiment models I watch begin to move into nose-bleed territory. Neither the S&P 500 nor the Value Line Composite have been able to breach their respective 200 day moving averages, and as a result, my model fell to -1.0, signaling only 30% long in equities. I'll be taking defensive action accordingly.
Sector strength is just as scattershot as last week. Healthcare is at the top of my rankings, but it isn't due to any recent performance. There isn't any clear momentum leaders at this point.
Emerging Markets are dominating in global strength, led by China and Brazil. I'll be curious to see how well Emerging can keep their relative strength title during the next intermediate term down leg.
30% long, 70% cash
Global allocation of long positions
MSCI EAFE Index 20%
MCCI Emerging Markets Index 30%
Russell 3000 Index - U.S. 50%
Top U.S. Sectors
U.S. Health Care 3.0
Composite Internet 2.5
U.S. Consumer Services 2.0
U.S. Pharmaceuticals 2.0
U.S. Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution 2.0
U.S. Biotechnology 2.0
Precious Metals 1.5
U.S. Oil & Gas 1.5
Top Intl. ETFs
MSCI Brazil Index Fund 2
FTSE China (HK Listed) Index Fund 2
FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund 2
MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund 2
MSCI South Korea Index Fund 2
MSCI All Country Asia ex Japan Index Fund 2
MSCI Hong Kong Index Fund 2
Strategy 3
Money Market 50%
U.S. Long Bonds 50%
Strategy 4
U.S. Long Bonds 25%
Agriculture 25%
Precious Metals 25%
U.S. Small Caps 25%
There are dark clouds on the horizon as a couple of the sentiment models I watch begin to move into nose-bleed territory. Neither the S&P 500 nor the Value Line Composite have been able to breach their respective 200 day moving averages, and as a result, my model fell to -1.0, signaling only 30% long in equities. I'll be taking defensive action accordingly.
Sector strength is just as scattershot as last week. Healthcare is at the top of my rankings, but it isn't due to any recent performance. There isn't any clear momentum leaders at this point.
Emerging Markets are dominating in global strength, led by China and Brazil. I'll be curious to see how well Emerging can keep their relative strength title during the next intermediate term down leg.
Sunday, April 12, 2009
Week of 4-12-2009
Timing Model = 0.5
60% long, 40% cash
Global allocation of long positions
MSCI EAFE Index 20%
MCCI Emerging Markets Index 30%
Russell 3000 Index - U.S. 50%
Top U.S. Sectors
U.S. Biotechnology 3.0
U.S. Semiconductor 2.0
U.S. Consumer Services 2.0
U.S. Pharmaceuticals 2.0
U.S. Health Care 2.0
Composite Internet 1.5
Precious Metals 1.5
U.S. Real Estate 1.5
U.S. Oil & Gas 1.5
Top Intl. ETFs
MSCI Brazil Index Fund 2
FTSE China (HK Listed) Index Fund 2
FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund 2
MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund 2
S&P Latin America 40 Index Fund 1
MSCI South Korea Index Fund 1
MSCI Taiwan Index Fund 1
MSCI South Africa Index Fund 1
MSCI All Country Asia ex Japan Index Fund 1
Strategy 3
Money Market 50%
U.S. Long Bonds 50%
Strategy 4
U.S. Long Bonds 25%
Agriculture 25%
Precious Metals 25%
U.S. Small Caps 25%
My timing model slipped again this week as the bullish effects of past pessimism continues to fade. My sector rankings are look like a turkey shoot target - leadership isn't all that clear right now.
I wouldn't be surprised to see the market move in either direction over the next few weeks. Sentiment is essentially neutral, the short term trend is up, but the long term trend is still down. If the Value Line composite average breaks above it's 200 day moving average it will give my timing model a substantial boost.
60% long, 40% cash
Global allocation of long positions
MSCI EAFE Index 20%
MCCI Emerging Markets Index 30%
Russell 3000 Index - U.S. 50%
Top U.S. Sectors
U.S. Biotechnology 3.0
U.S. Semiconductor 2.0
U.S. Consumer Services 2.0
U.S. Pharmaceuticals 2.0
U.S. Health Care 2.0
Composite Internet 1.5
Precious Metals 1.5
U.S. Real Estate 1.5
U.S. Oil & Gas 1.5
Top Intl. ETFs
MSCI Brazil Index Fund 2
FTSE China (HK Listed) Index Fund 2
FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund 2
MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund 2
S&P Latin America 40 Index Fund 1
MSCI South Korea Index Fund 1
MSCI Taiwan Index Fund 1
MSCI South Africa Index Fund 1
MSCI All Country Asia ex Japan Index Fund 1
Strategy 3
Money Market 50%
U.S. Long Bonds 50%
Strategy 4
U.S. Long Bonds 25%
Agriculture 25%
Precious Metals 25%
U.S. Small Caps 25%
My timing model slipped again this week as the bullish effects of past pessimism continues to fade. My sector rankings are look like a turkey shoot target - leadership isn't all that clear right now.
I wouldn't be surprised to see the market move in either direction over the next few weeks. Sentiment is essentially neutral, the short term trend is up, but the long term trend is still down. If the Value Line composite average breaks above it's 200 day moving average it will give my timing model a substantial boost.
Sunday, April 5, 2009
Week of 4-05-2009
Timing Model = 1.0
70% long, 30% cash
Global allocation of long positions
MSCI EAFE Index 20%
MCCI Emerging Markets Index 30%
Russell 3000 Index - U.S. 50%
Top U.S. Sectors
U.S. Health Care 3.5
U.S. Semiconductor 2.5
U.S. Technology 2.5
U.S. Biotechnology 2.5
U.S. Basic Materials 2.0
U.S. Pharmaceuticals 2.0
U.S. Oil & Gas 2.0
U.S. Leisure Goods 1.5
U.S. Consumer Services 1.5
U.S. Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution 1.5
Top Intl. ETFs
MSCI Brazil Index Fund 2
FTSE China (HK Listed) Index Fund 1
S&P Latin America 40 Index Fund 1
FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund 1
MSCI South Korea Index Fund 1
MSCI Taiwan Index Fund 1
MSCI South Africa Index Fund 1
MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund 1
Strategy 3
Money Market 50%
U.S. Long Bonds 50%
Strategy 4
U.S. Long Bonds 25%
Agriculture 25%
Precious Metals 25%
U.S. Small Caps 25%
My timing model fell a half point this week as sentiment scores fell. We're in one of those uncomfortable junctures where sentiment is falling from bullish to neutral, and the tape is signaling a new intermediate trend, although we're short term overbought.
U.S. Sector rankings are also in flux. Technology and Basic Materials are now in the top tier, but over extended on a short term basis. The healthcare sectors are still long term momentum leaders, but short term oversold.
Emerging Markets are also over-extended short term.
I'll be watching the tape very closely this week. Any significant selling will trigger my model to reduce equity exposure to 50% or possibly lower.
70% long, 30% cash
Global allocation of long positions
MSCI EAFE Index 20%
MCCI Emerging Markets Index 30%
Russell 3000 Index - U.S. 50%
Top U.S. Sectors
U.S. Health Care 3.5
U.S. Semiconductor 2.5
U.S. Technology 2.5
U.S. Biotechnology 2.5
U.S. Basic Materials 2.0
U.S. Pharmaceuticals 2.0
U.S. Oil & Gas 2.0
U.S. Leisure Goods 1.5
U.S. Consumer Services 1.5
U.S. Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution 1.5
Top Intl. ETFs
MSCI Brazil Index Fund 2
FTSE China (HK Listed) Index Fund 1
S&P Latin America 40 Index Fund 1
FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund 1
MSCI South Korea Index Fund 1
MSCI Taiwan Index Fund 1
MSCI South Africa Index Fund 1
MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund 1
Strategy 3
Money Market 50%
U.S. Long Bonds 50%
Strategy 4
U.S. Long Bonds 25%
Agriculture 25%
Precious Metals 25%
U.S. Small Caps 25%
My timing model fell a half point this week as sentiment scores fell. We're in one of those uncomfortable junctures where sentiment is falling from bullish to neutral, and the tape is signaling a new intermediate trend, although we're short term overbought.
U.S. Sector rankings are also in flux. Technology and Basic Materials are now in the top tier, but over extended on a short term basis. The healthcare sectors are still long term momentum leaders, but short term oversold.
Emerging Markets are also over-extended short term.
I'll be watching the tape very closely this week. Any significant selling will trigger my model to reduce equity exposure to 50% or possibly lower.
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