Timing Model = -3.5
0% long, 100% cash
Global allocation of long positions
MSCI EAFE Index 20%
MCCI Emerging Markets Index 10%
Russell 3000 Index - U.S. 70%
Top U.S. Sectors
U.S. Health Care 5.5
U.S. Biotechnology 4.0
U.S. Utilities 3.5
U.S. Oil & Gas 3.0
U.S. Pharmaceuticals 3.0
U.S. Semiconductor 2.5
Top Intl. ETFs
MSCI Malaysia Index Fund 1
FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund 1
FTSE China (HK Listed) Index Fund 1
MSCI All Country Asia ex Japan Index Fund 1
Strategy 3
Money Market 50%
U.S. Long Bonds 50%
Strategy 4
U.S. Long Bonds 25%
Agriculture 25%
Precious Metals 25%
U.S. Small Caps 25%
The Value Line Composite Index briefly peaked above it's 75 day moving average earlier this past week but it wasn't enough to bump my timing model into any long positions. Because intermediate sentiment has become dead neutral, another thrust above the 75 day moving average will likely result in adding long positions.
This week should be interesting if not unpredictable. Sentiment isn't providing any guidance right now, even in the short term. The key again is to stay in tune with tape and be ready to add quickly, even if we see a huge single day move.
Saturday, January 31, 2009
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
Good News...And Bad News
Good news: The Value Line Composite Index closed above its 75 day moving average, pushing my timing model from -4.5 to -2.5.Bad news: 2.5 still equates to a 0% long, 100% cash allocation. Also, short term sentiment is very overbought as of the close today. If the VLE 5 day moving average crosses above its 75 day moving average, it will push my model to -.5, or 40% long.
Expect whipsaws, but the recognize that the trend is your friend. If we continue higher I'll be putting chips on the table.
Sunday, January 25, 2009
Week of 1-25-2009
Timing Model = -4.5
0% long, 100% cash
Global allocation of long positions
MSCI EAFE Index 20%
MCCI Emerging Markets Index 10%
Russell 3000 Index - U.S. 70%
Top U.S. Sectors
U.S. Health Care 4.5
U.S. Pharmaceuticals 4.5
U.S. Biotechnology 4.0
U.S. Oil & Gas 3.0
Precious Metals 2.5
U.S. Semiconductor 2.0
Composite Internet 2.0
Small Cap Value 2.0
Top Intl. ETFs
MSCI Japan Index Fund 2
MSCI Switzerland Index 1
MSCI Malaysia Index Fund 1
MSCI South Africa Index 1
S&P Latin America 40 Index Fund 1
MSCI Brazil Index Fund 1
MSCI Mexico Index Fund 1
MSCI South Korea Index Fund 1
Strategy 3
Money Market 50%
U.S. Long Bonds 50%
Strategy 4
U.S. Long Bonds 25%
Agriculture 25%
Precious Metals 25%
U.S. Small Caps 25%
Sentiment continues to cycle down and the only factors in play with my timing model right now is the 75 day moving average of the S&P 500 and Value Line Composite Index.
0% long, 100% cash
Global allocation of long positions
MSCI EAFE Index 20%
MCCI Emerging Markets Index 10%
Russell 3000 Index - U.S. 70%
Top U.S. Sectors
U.S. Health Care 4.5
U.S. Pharmaceuticals 4.5
U.S. Biotechnology 4.0
U.S. Oil & Gas 3.0
Precious Metals 2.5
U.S. Semiconductor 2.0
Composite Internet 2.0
Small Cap Value 2.0
Top Intl. ETFs
MSCI Japan Index Fund 2
MSCI Switzerland Index 1
MSCI Malaysia Index Fund 1
MSCI South Africa Index 1
S&P Latin America 40 Index Fund 1
MSCI Brazil Index Fund 1
MSCI Mexico Index Fund 1
MSCI South Korea Index Fund 1
Strategy 3
Money Market 50%
U.S. Long Bonds 50%
Strategy 4
U.S. Long Bonds 25%
Agriculture 25%
Precious Metals 25%
U.S. Small Caps 25%
Sentiment continues to cycle down and the only factors in play with my timing model right now is the 75 day moving average of the S&P 500 and Value Line Composite Index.
Sunday, January 18, 2009
Week of 1-18-2009
Timing Model = -4.5
0% long, 100% cash
Global allocation of long positions
MSCI EAFE Index 40%
MCCI Emerging Markets Index 10%
Russell 3000 Index - U.S. 50%
Top U.S. Sectors
U.S. Health Care 3.5
U.S. Pharmaceuticals 3.0
U.S. Biotechnology 3.0
U.S. Oil & Gas 2.5
Precious Metals 2.0
U.S. Semiconductor 2.0
U.S. Basic Materials 2.0
U.S. Real Estate 2.0
Top Intl. ETFs
MSCI Japan Index Fund 3
MSCI Switzerland Index Fund 2
MSCI Malaysia Index Fund 1
MSCI South Africa Index Fund 1
S&P Latin America 40 Index Fund 1
Strategy 3
Money Market 50%
U.S. Long Bonds 50%
Strategy 4
U.S. Long Bonds 25%
Agriculture 25%
Precious Metals 25%
U.S. Large Caps 25%
My timing model signaled 100% cash as the Value Line Composite index fell below its 75 day moving average early in the week. There isn't enough pessimism right now to warrant any long exposure so I don't expect much change in the the model for a while unless we see an explosion of buying in the next week or two. Who knows, we might see an Obama rally if the market sees the impending flood of government money as a positive.
Not that it matters much, the sector rankings are pretty flat. Bonds and precious metals are the strongest asset classes but there's also some strength in agriculture and industrial materials.
0% long, 100% cash
Global allocation of long positions
MSCI EAFE Index 40%
MCCI Emerging Markets Index 10%
Russell 3000 Index - U.S. 50%
Top U.S. Sectors
U.S. Health Care 3.5
U.S. Pharmaceuticals 3.0
U.S. Biotechnology 3.0
U.S. Oil & Gas 2.5
Precious Metals 2.0
U.S. Semiconductor 2.0
U.S. Basic Materials 2.0
U.S. Real Estate 2.0
Top Intl. ETFs
MSCI Japan Index Fund 3
MSCI Switzerland Index Fund 2
MSCI Malaysia Index Fund 1
MSCI South Africa Index Fund 1
S&P Latin America 40 Index Fund 1
Strategy 3
Money Market 50%
U.S. Long Bonds 50%
Strategy 4
U.S. Long Bonds 25%
Agriculture 25%
Precious Metals 25%
U.S. Large Caps 25%
My timing model signaled 100% cash as the Value Line Composite index fell below its 75 day moving average early in the week. There isn't enough pessimism right now to warrant any long exposure so I don't expect much change in the the model for a while unless we see an explosion of buying in the next week or two. Who knows, we might see an Obama rally if the market sees the impending flood of government money as a positive.
Not that it matters much, the sector rankings are pretty flat. Bonds and precious metals are the strongest asset classes but there's also some strength in agriculture and industrial materials.
Sunday, January 11, 2009
Week of 1-11-2009
Timing Model = -1.5
20% long, 80% cash
Global allocation of long positions
MSCI EAFE Index 40%
MCCI Emerging Markets Index 10%
Russell 3000 Index - U.S. 50%
Top U.S. Sectors
U.S. Health Care 5.5
U.S. Pharmaceuticals 4.5
U.S. Biotechnology 3.0
U.S. Oil & Gas 2.5
U.S. Consumer Goods 2.5
Precious Metals 2.0
Composite Internet 2.0
U.S. Telecommunications 2.0
Top Intl. ETFs
MSCI Japan Index Fund 3
MSCI Switzerland Index Fund 2
MSCI Malaysia Index Fund 1
MSCI South Africa Index Fund 1
FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund 1
S&P Latin America 40 Index Fund 1
Strategy 3
Money Market 50%
U.S. Long Bonds 50%
Strategy 4
U.S. Long Bonds 25%
Agriculture 25%
Precious Metals 25%
U.S. Large Caps 25%
My timing model ticked up a bit as the Value Line Composite index moved above it's 75 day moving average. I'll be curious to see is the market can mount a new rally after last week's backfilling.
Intermediate sentiment is still mixed to mildly bearish. I'm keenly focused on price action at this point.
20% long, 80% cash
Global allocation of long positions
MSCI EAFE Index 40%
MCCI Emerging Markets Index 10%
Russell 3000 Index - U.S. 50%
Top U.S. Sectors
U.S. Health Care 5.5
U.S. Pharmaceuticals 4.5
U.S. Biotechnology 3.0
U.S. Oil & Gas 2.5
U.S. Consumer Goods 2.5
Precious Metals 2.0
Composite Internet 2.0
U.S. Telecommunications 2.0
Top Intl. ETFs
MSCI Japan Index Fund 3
MSCI Switzerland Index Fund 2
MSCI Malaysia Index Fund 1
MSCI South Africa Index Fund 1
FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund 1
S&P Latin America 40 Index Fund 1
Strategy 3
Money Market 50%
U.S. Long Bonds 50%
Strategy 4
U.S. Long Bonds 25%
Agriculture 25%
Precious Metals 25%
U.S. Large Caps 25%
My timing model ticked up a bit as the Value Line Composite index moved above it's 75 day moving average. I'll be curious to see is the market can mount a new rally after last week's backfilling.
Intermediate sentiment is still mixed to mildly bearish. I'm keenly focused on price action at this point.
Sunday, January 4, 2009
Week of 1-4-2009
Timing Model = -3.5
0% long, 100% cash
Global allocation of long positions
MSCI EAFE Index 40%
MCCI Emerging Markets Index 10%
Russell 3000 Index - U.S. 50%
Top U.S. Sectors
U.S. Pharmaceuticals 4.0
U.S. Health Care 3.5
U.S. Telecommunications 3.5
U.S. Biotechnology 3.0
U.S. Consumer Goods 2.5
Small Cap Value 2.5
U.S. Consumer Services 2.0
U.S. Oil & Gas 2.0
U.S. Semiconductor 2.0
Top Intl. ETFs
MSCI Switzerland Index Fund 3
MSCI Japan Index Fund 2
MSCI Malaysia Index Fund 1
MSCI South Africa Index Fund 1
MSCI Germany Index Fund 1
Strategy 3
Money Market 50%
U.S. Long Bonds 50%
Strategy 4
U.S. Long Bonds 25%
Agriculture 25%
Precious Metals 25%
U.S. Small Caps 25%
Intermediate term sentiment is mixed and short term sentiment indicates the market is extremely overbought. This is exactly what you don't want to see in a bear market. It looks like we're near an intermediate peak from the November lows, but only time will tell.
The Value Line Composite and S&P 500 indices both are flirting with their 75 day moving averages. It will take gains above those levels in order to move my timing model back to any long exposure. Given the current state of the sentiment models I watch, the only factors in play right now is the tape. If we move higher, I will add long positions as my model suggests, but I'm not very optimistic of higher prices in the near term.
0% long, 100% cash
Global allocation of long positions
MSCI EAFE Index 40%
MCCI Emerging Markets Index 10%
Russell 3000 Index - U.S. 50%
Top U.S. Sectors
U.S. Pharmaceuticals 4.0
U.S. Health Care 3.5
U.S. Telecommunications 3.5
U.S. Biotechnology 3.0
U.S. Consumer Goods 2.5
Small Cap Value 2.5
U.S. Consumer Services 2.0
U.S. Oil & Gas 2.0
U.S. Semiconductor 2.0
Top Intl. ETFs
MSCI Switzerland Index Fund 3
MSCI Japan Index Fund 2
MSCI Malaysia Index Fund 1
MSCI South Africa Index Fund 1
MSCI Germany Index Fund 1
Strategy 3
Money Market 50%
U.S. Long Bonds 50%
Strategy 4
U.S. Long Bonds 25%
Agriculture 25%
Precious Metals 25%
U.S. Small Caps 25%
Intermediate term sentiment is mixed and short term sentiment indicates the market is extremely overbought. This is exactly what you don't want to see in a bear market. It looks like we're near an intermediate peak from the November lows, but only time will tell.
The Value Line Composite and S&P 500 indices both are flirting with their 75 day moving averages. It will take gains above those levels in order to move my timing model back to any long exposure. Given the current state of the sentiment models I watch, the only factors in play right now is the tape. If we move higher, I will add long positions as my model suggests, but I'm not very optimistic of higher prices in the near term.
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