Timing Model = 3.0
100% long, 0% cash
Global allocation of long positions
MSCI EAFE Index 20%
MCCI Emerging Markets Index 30%
Russell 3000 Index - U.S. 50%
Top U.S. Sectors
U.S. Technology 3.5
U.S. Health Care 2.5
U.S. Semiconductor 2.5
U.S. Pharmaceuticals 2.0
U.S. Biotechnology 2.0
Composite Internet 2.0
U.S. Micro Cap 2.0
Mid Cap Growth 2.0
U.S. Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution 2.0
Top Intl. ETFs
MSCI All Country Asia ex Japan Index Fund 2
MSCI Singapore Index Fund 2
FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund 2
MSCI Hong Kong Index Fund 2
MSCI South Africa Index Fund 2
S&P Latin America 40 Index Fund 2
MSCI Brazil Index Fund 2
MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund 2
MSCI Sweden Index Fund 2
FTSE China (HK Listed) Index Fund 2
Strategy 3
Money Markets 11%
Emerging Markets 11%
Industrial Materials 11%
International Real Estate 11%
Precious Metals 11%
U.S. Small Caps 11%
U.S. Large Cap 11%
EAFE 11%
Energy 11%
Strategy 4
Emerging Markets 25%
Industrial Materials 25%
International Real Estate 25%
Precious Metals 25%
My timing model tacked on more long exposure throughout the week at the S&P 500 moved decisively away from it's 200 day moving average. Sentiment is all but neutral - the advisor and investor sentiment polls are the only thing signaling any degree of caution.
We are extremely overbought on a short term basis and I would expect to see some profit taking this week. Overall, my best guess is equities will trade in a range somewhere between 850-1000 for the next couple months. The S&P 500 and its 75 day moving average should be monitored closely.
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