Week of 7-12-2009

Timing Model = -1.0
30% long, 70% cash

Global allocation of long positions
MSCI EAFE Index 20%
MCCI Emerging Markets Index 30%
Russell 3000 Index - U.S. 50%

Top U.S. Sectors
U.S. Technology 3.5
U.S. Micro Cap 3.5
U.S. Health Care 3.0
U.S. Semiconductor 3.0
Composite Internet 2.5
U.S. Biotechnology 2.0
U.S. Consumer Services 2.0
Mid Cap Growth 2.0

Top Intl. ETFs
FTSE China (HK Listed) Index Fund 3
MSCI All Country Asia ex Japan Index Fund 2
MSCI Taiwan Index Fund 2
MSCI Singapore Index Fund 2
FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund 2
MSCI Hong Kong Index Fund 2

Strategy 3
Money Markets 12.5%
Emerging Markets 12.5%
EAFE 12.5%
Industrial Materials 12.5%
International Real Estate 12.5%
Energy 12.5%
U.S. Small Caps 12.5%
Precious Metals 12.5%

Strategy 4
Emerging Markets 25%
EAFE 25%
Industrial Materials 25%
International Real Estate 25%

The S&P 500 closed just below it's 200 day moving average on Friday, but sentiment has become more neutral, resulting in a 30% long equity exposure. Needless to say, if the market rallies this week, equity exposure will rise. If the market falls, equity exposure will follow suit.

I have no gut feeling at to where the market will head next. The short/intermediate term indicators suggest a rolling over is taking place, but this could also be a head fake similar to what we've seen in past early bull markets.

Asian equities are dominating the foriegn ETF momentum rankings and Emerging is far outpacing U.S. and EAFE. It will be interesting to see if this can hold.