Trend Ambiguities

Today the S&P 500 closed below both it's 75 and 200 day moving average. If it holds tomorrow, my timing model will fall to -.5 or a 40% long equity exposure. This is a good example of one of the headaches one sees with trend indicators - potential whipsaws. This is especially true when two triggers are so close to one another.

Note, if the SPX 5 day moving average also falls below both longer term moving averages, my model will signal going to 100% cash. Keep in mind negative sentiment is fading, so if the status quo holds to the weekend, there would surely be some long exposure.