Timing Model = 2.0
90% long, 10% cash
Global allocation of long positions
MSCI EAFE Index 20%
MCCI Emerging Markets Index 30%
Russell 3000 Index - U.S. 50%
Top U.S. Sectors
U.S. Biotechnology 3.5
Composite Internet 3.0
Precious Metals 3.0
U.S. Health Care 3.0
U.S. Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution 2.0
U.S. Oil & Gas 1.5
U.S. Technology 1.5
U.S. Mobile Telecommunications 1.5
U.S. Semiconductor 1.5
Top Intl. ETFs
MSCI Brazil Index Fund 2
MSCI All Country Asia ex Japan Index Fund 2
MSCI South Korea Index Fund 2
MSCI Singapore Index Fund 2
MSCI Canada Index Fund 2
MSCI South Africa Index Fund 2
Strategy 3
Precious Metals 11%
Emerging Markets 11%
Agriculture 11%
Industrial Materials 11%
Energy 11%
EAFE 11%
U.S. Small Caps 11%
Internatiional Real Estate 11%
U.S. Large Cap 11%
Strategy 4
Precious Metals 25%
Emerging Markets 25%
Agriculture 25%
Industrial Materials 25%
Sorry about not posting last week - I've been very busy lately.
The tape is calling the tune right now. Both the Value Line Composite and S&P500 indices are about their 75 and 200 day moving averages. Sentiment is still exhibiting some over optimism, but not as much as you might think.
Markets are unpredictable and I would have thought we would have seen some significant backfilling during the last few weeks, but that never came to pass. At this point I have now gut-feel as to where equities will go, which isn't a bad thing. My timing model has been cautious, and any retracement could quickly reduce long positions.
If I was forced to guess I would say we saw the bottom of the bear already, but that doesn't mean there is a lot of upside from here.
National Debt Clock
Projected Deficits
When will we hit the wall?
Favs
Slideshow
Asset Classes - Strategy 3
Books I like
U.S. Equity Sectors I Track
- Banks
- Basic Materials
- Biotechnology
- Consumer Goods
- Consumer Services
- Financials
- Healthcare
- Industrials
- Internet
- Leisure Goods
- Micro Caps
- Mid Cap Growth
- Mid Cap Value
- Mobile Telecommunications
- Oil & Gas
- Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution
- Pharmaceuticals
- Precious Metals
- Real Estate
- Semiconductors
- Small Cap Growth
- Small Cap Value
- Technology
- Telecommunications
- Utilities
Disclaimer
About Me
2 comments:
I like your web site
I have followed it for a while.
But this is about money.
Even if you were some how more accurate than other websites - not an easy thing to do
So what, at least they regularly update. If I rely on your insight what do I do when you do not update?
I know you provide this free, but are you serious or just playing?
I do not know and do not care. You have good insight, but you need to commit or quit IMO. Charging for your insight is another question, but right now you need to address commitment.
I think I have similar insight and have chosen not to commit. There is nothing wrong with choosing not to commit to a daily or in your case weekly grind. I have chosen it is not right for me, but you need to decide. A lack of commitment waste your time and other peoples time.
I do not mean to be difficult as I really respect your insight. But, if it is not useful what is the point?
Thanks for reading my blog - I sincerely apologize for not posting last weekend - I was on vacation and didn't have reliable internet access.
I'm concerned by your comment though because it seems as though you might be placing a little too much value on my opinion. Although I feel comfortable with my methods, and understand both their strengths and weaknesses, if makes be nervous that someone may be using them as advice or even support for what they are already doing.
When I started this blog almost 2 years ago I intended to post once a week, and have been very diligent in doing so until very recently. Rarely do I miss a weekend post, but sometimes I do, and it's likely I may miss again.
In any case, I'll do my best to post every weekend. Thanks again for reading.
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