Timing Model = 1.5
80% long, 20% cash
Global allocation of long positions
MSCI EAFE Index 30%
MCCI Emerging Markets Index 30%
Russell 3000 Index - U.S. 40%
Top U.S. Sectors
U.S. Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution 4.0
U.S. Biotechnology 3.0
U.S. Semiconductor 2.0
U.S. Micro Cap 2.0
U.S. Financials 2.0
Composite Internet 2.0
Top Intl. ETFs
MSCI Hong Kong Index Fund 3
MSCI Brazil Index Fund 2
MSCI All Country Asia ex Japan Index Fund 2
S&P Latin America 40 Index Fund 2
FTSE China (HK Listed) Index Fund 2
FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund 2
Strategy 3
Emerging Markets 11%
Precious Metals 11%
Industrial Materials 11%
EAFE 11%Energy 11%
U.S. Small Caps 11%
Agriculture 11%
International Real Estate 11%
U.S. Large Cap 11%
Strategy 4
Emerging Markets 25%
Precious Metals 25%
Industrial Materials 25%
EAFE 25%
Not much has changed since last week, except a few asset class are getting close to their 75/200 day moving average. Large cap U.S. is just one example.
Watching the tape is very important right now. Weakness in prices will force my model to roll back in exposure. However, residual overly optimistic sentiment will also back off. I wouldn't be at all suprised to see equities bounce around for a while without making a huge move in either direction, only to resume the upward trend. There is a real danger of being under exposed right now. When new bull markets make their first move up, there are many skeptics.
Sunday, June 28, 2009
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2 comments:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPXA200R&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p24246419218
The 200dma is in play. i think the above breadth indicator may offer a clue if one is willing to engage in intermediate trading.
Yup. The 75 day moving average is also in play as far as my model is concerned. Unless sentiment components chime in, I might be reducing exposure next week.
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