Timing Model = -1.0
30% long, 70% cash
Global allocation of long positions
MSCI EAFE Index 20%
MCCI Emerging Markets Index 30%
Russell 3000 Index - U.S. 50%
Top U.S. Sectors
U.S. Health Care 3.0
Composite Internet 2.5
U.S. Consumer Services 2.0
U.S. Pharmaceuticals 2.0
U.S. Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution 2.0
U.S. Biotechnology 2.0
Precious Metals 1.5
U.S. Oil & Gas 1.5
Top Intl. ETFs
MSCI Brazil Index Fund 2
FTSE China (HK Listed) Index Fund 2
FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund 2
MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund 2
MSCI South Korea Index Fund 2
MSCI All Country Asia ex Japan Index Fund 2
MSCI Hong Kong Index Fund 2
Strategy 3
Money Market 50%
U.S. Long Bonds 50%
Strategy 4
U.S. Long Bonds 25%
Agriculture 25%
Precious Metals 25%
U.S. Small Caps 25%
There are dark clouds on the horizon as a couple of the sentiment models I watch begin to move into nose-bleed territory. Neither the S&P 500 nor the Value Line Composite have been able to breach their respective 200 day moving averages, and as a result, my model fell to -1.0, signaling only 30% long in equities. I'll be taking defensive action accordingly.
Sector strength is just as scattershot as last week. Healthcare is at the top of my rankings, but it isn't due to any recent performance. There isn't any clear momentum leaders at this point.
Emerging Markets are dominating in global strength, led by China and Brazil. I'll be curious to see how well Emerging can keep their relative strength title during the next intermediate term down leg.
Sunday, April 19, 2009
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1 comments:
tom, thank you for momentum references,a nice mix, I had recalled that in the past you've mentioned some interesting .pdfs.
I've gotten emails from Mal Williams for some time. Surprised that he writes so extensively about his cop strategy but intentionally leaves out the most important elements that go into actionable decisions. He explains that he does not trust or use "indicators" but roc is at the heart of his data collection. This week MUST be a volatile one. The market has been acting like its pre fall of 2007 and we know it is not. Now will be the time to see if the lows get tested again. I've teamed up with a programmer and trader who has decided to stop depending upon the big brokerage houses for a job. We're playing around with ways to rank order and to back test w/o data mining. Slice and dice how we might, the big decision is how much to expose, or not. Not sure if we have access to sentiment and breadth data.jasper
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