Week of 4-05-2009

Timing Model = 1.0
70% long, 30% cash

Global allocation of long positions
MSCI EAFE Index 20%
MCCI Emerging Markets Index 30%
Russell 3000 Index - U.S. 50%

Top U.S. Sectors
U.S. Health Care 3.5
U.S. Semiconductor 2.5
U.S. Technology 2.5
U.S. Biotechnology 2.5
U.S. Basic Materials 2.0
U.S. Pharmaceuticals 2.0
U.S. Oil & Gas 2.0
U.S. Leisure Goods 1.5
U.S. Consumer Services 1.5
U.S. Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution 1.5

Top Intl. ETFs
MSCI Brazil Index Fund 2
FTSE China (HK Listed) Index Fund 1
S&P Latin America 40 Index Fund 1
FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund 1
MSCI South Korea Index Fund 1
MSCI Taiwan Index Fund 1
MSCI South Africa Index Fund 1
MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund 1

Strategy 3
Money Market 50%
U.S. Long Bonds 50%

Strategy 4
U.S. Long Bonds 25%
Agriculture 25%
Precious Metals 25%
U.S. Small Caps 25%

My timing model fell a half point this week as sentiment scores fell. We're in one of those uncomfortable junctures where sentiment is falling from bullish to neutral, and the tape is signaling a new intermediate trend, although we're short term overbought.

U.S. Sector rankings are also in flux. Technology and Basic Materials are now in the top tier, but over extended on a short term basis. The healthcare sectors are still long term momentum leaders, but short term oversold.

Emerging Markets are also over-extended short term.

I'll be watching the tape very closely this week. Any significant selling will trigger my model to reduce equity exposure to 50% or possibly lower.