My guess is we will see some consolidation over the coming days if not weeks. However, I would love to see equities, both large and small cap, take a run at their 200 day moving average sometime during the next month or two.
From a long term perspective, it's impossible to know if the bear bottom is in or if we'll see yet another low.One last thing. My Tactical Asset Allocation portfolio is now only 7.3% from breaking even with where it was on January 2, 2008. I don't know if I should be happy or not about that.
My buy and hold portfolio has fared far worse. Thankfully I had slightly over 30% in bonds when the bear market began. I really need to re-balance though - and soon.
5 comments:
tom,
my software service is defunct...i'm trying to figure out how to use fidelity's wealth lab software...once again..and, it's not fun...meanwhile, do you know of a free website that will rank by simple roc periods etf tickers that I plug in..about 120 of them?
thx,capser
Very interested.
So your Tactical Asset Allocation portfolio uses Strategy 3, Buy and Hold uses Strategy 4(?). and you also have another follows Timing Model, and percentage of this model's long follow Global allocation, right?
Where to use Top U.S. Sectors and Top Int'l ETFs?
And how your divide your portfolios among taxable and nontaxable accounts?
Thanks
capster,
Sorry, I don't know one off the top of my head. Moneycentral used to have a deluxe screener but I can't remember if it gave users much control over periods.
jj-
Lot of questions here. Sorry for the confusion.
Strategy 1 is my buy and hold portfolio, very similar to the allocations you would find in a Merriman portfolio. Mine is roughly 70% equities and 30% bonds.
Strategy 2 is my TAA. There are 3 components: a) It uses my timing model to determine overall equity/cash allocation b) My global Allocation model indicates how I allocate equities between U.S., Emerging, and EAFE c) Sector and Intl ranks indicate the sectors and ETFs I should be using. Generally I want to be in sectors that are in the top 25% of my sector ranking system.
Strategy 3 and 4 are just for fun. I don't have the assets to fully fund either at the moment.
Everything is in non-taxable accounts. I would never use my TAA or Strategy 3 or 4 outside of non-taxable accounts.
Thanks, Tom.
One more, why you'd never use those strategies for taxable account? What would you do with taxable? Just try to learn.
None of systems aren't designed to avoid being killed by capital gains taxes.
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