Week of 1-4-2009

Timing Model = -3.5
0% long, 100% cash

Global allocation of long positions
MSCI EAFE Index 40%
MCCI Emerging Markets Index 10%
Russell 3000 Index - U.S. 50%

Top U.S. Sectors
U.S. Pharmaceuticals 4.0
U.S. Health Care 3.5
U.S. Telecommunications 3.5
U.S. Biotechnology 3.0
U.S. Consumer Goods 2.5
Small Cap Value 2.5
U.S. Consumer Services 2.0
U.S. Oil & Gas 2.0
U.S. Semiconductor 2.0

Top Intl. ETFs
MSCI Switzerland Index Fund 3
MSCI Japan Index Fund 2
MSCI Malaysia Index Fund 1
MSCI South Africa Index Fund 1
MSCI Germany Index Fund 1

Strategy 3
Money Market 50%
U.S. Long Bonds 50%

Strategy 4
U.S. Long Bonds 25%
Agriculture 25%
Precious Metals 25%
U.S. Small Caps 25%

Intermediate term sentiment is mixed and short term sentiment indicates the market is extremely overbought. This is exactly what you don't want to see in a bear market. It looks like we're near an intermediate peak from the November lows, but only time will tell.

The Value Line Composite and S&P 500 indices both are flirting with their 75 day moving averages. It will take gains above those levels in order to move my timing model back to any long exposure. Given the current state of the sentiment models I watch, the only factors in play right now is the tape. If we move higher, I will add long positions as my model suggests, but I'm not very optimistic of higher prices in the near term.