Week of 1-18-2009

Timing Model = -4.5
0% long, 100% cash

Global allocation of long positions
MSCI EAFE Index 40%
MCCI Emerging Markets Index 10%
Russell 3000 Index - U.S. 50%

Top U.S. Sectors
U.S. Health Care 3.5
U.S. Pharmaceuticals 3.0
U.S. Biotechnology 3.0
U.S. Oil & Gas 2.5
Precious Metals 2.0
U.S. Semiconductor 2.0
U.S. Basic Materials 2.0
U.S. Real Estate 2.0

Top Intl. ETFs
MSCI Japan Index Fund 3
MSCI Switzerland Index Fund 2
MSCI Malaysia Index Fund 1
MSCI South Africa Index Fund 1
S&P Latin America 40 Index Fund 1

Strategy 3
Money Market 50%
U.S. Long Bonds 50%

Strategy 4
U.S. Long Bonds 25%
Agriculture 25%
Precious Metals 25%
U.S. Large Caps 25%

My timing model signaled 100% cash as the Value Line Composite index fell below its 75 day moving average early in the week. There isn't enough pessimism right now to warrant any long exposure so I don't expect much change in the the model for a while unless we see an explosion of buying in the next week or two. Who knows, we might see an Obama rally if the market sees the impending flood of government money as a positive.

Not that it matters much, the sector rankings are pretty flat. Bonds and precious metals are the strongest asset classes but there's also some strength in agriculture and industrial materials.