Week of 5-25-2008

Timing Model = -1.5
20% long, 80% cash

Global allocation of long positions
MSCI EAFE Index 30%
MCCI Emerging Markets Index 30%
Russell 3000 Index - U.S. 40%

Top U.S. Sectors
U.S. Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution 5.0
U.S. Oil & Gas 3.5
U.S. Biotechnology 3.0
U.S. Semiconductor 2.5
U.S. Technology 2.5
Precious Metals 2.5

Top Intl. ETFs
S&P Latin America 40 Index Fund 3
MSCI Brazil Index Fund 3
MSCI Canada Index Fund 3
MSCI Austria Index Fund 2
MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund 2

Strategy 3
Money Market 12.5%
Agriculture 12.5%
U.S. Long Bonds 12.5%
Industrial Materials 12.5%
Energy 12.5%
Emerging Markets 12.5%
EAFE 12.5%
Precious Metals 12.5%
U.S. REITs 0.0%
U.S. Large Cap 0.0%
U.S. Small Cap 0.0%
Intl Real Estate 0.0%

I Like U.S. T-Bonds

I Like U.S. T-Bonds...as a short/intermediate term trade. There's excessive levels of pessimism towards U.S. long bonds right now, even though they've been able to maintain their current uptrend. I'm taking a small position in GVPIX tomorrow.

Week of 5-18-2008

Timing Model = .5
60% long, 40% cash

Global allocation of long positions
MSCI EAFE Index 30%
MCCI Emerging Markets Index 30%
Russell 3000 Index - U.S. 40%

Top U.S. Sectors
U.S. Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution 5.0
U.S. Oil & Gas 4.0
Precious Metals 2.5
U.S. Semiconductor 2.0
U.S. Leisure Goods 2.0
Mid Cap Growth 2.0
U.S. Real Estate 2.0

Top Intl. ETFs
S&P Latin America 40 Index Fund 3
MSCI Brazil Index Fund 3
MSCI Taiwan Index Fund 3
MSCI Canada Index Fund 2
MSCI Austria Index Fund 2
FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund 1
MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund 1
MSCI Sweden Index Fund 1
MSCI Mexico Index Fund 1
MSCI South Africa Index Fund 1
MSCI Hong Kong Index Fund 1

Strategy 3
Money Market 11.1%
Agriculture 11.1%
U.S. Long Bonds 11.1%
Industrial Materials 11.1%
Energy 11.1%
Emerging Markets 11.1%
U.S. REITs 11.1%
EAFE 11.1%
Precious Metals 11.1%
U.S. Large Cap 0.0%
U.S. Small Cap 0.0%
Intl Real Estate 0.0%

High Times

Simple question: Do commodities take a break until we can adjust to the altitude? The pace has been relentless since 2002.

I think I see the fat lady coming

My Tactical Asset Allocation portfolio is only 50% long right now, but I'm taking a speculative position in UCPIX today because of the mounting negatives. I'm going to use a pretty tight mental exit - the S&P 500 200 day moving average. Granted, if this much followed moving average is breached we're likely to see good follow through, but I'm up to the challenge.

The market negatives are:

• short term NASDAQ sentiment is OB
• intermediate term sentiment is becoming excessively over optimistic
• OB MACD during a presumed bear market
• NYSE relative volume has been low for the past several weeks
• option expiration week seasonality bias towards short term losses
• we're at the beginning of "sell in May" seasonality
• anything else?

Week of 5-11-2008

Timing Model = 0
50% long, 50% cash

Global allocation of long positions
MSCI EAFE Index 30%
MCCI Emerging Markets Index 30%
Russell 3000 Index - U.S. 40%

Top U.S. Sectors
U.S. Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution 5.0
U.S. Oil & Gas 4.5
U.S. Biotechnology 3.5
U.S. Basic Materials 2.5
Precious Metals 2.5

Top Intl. ETFs
S&P Latin America 40 Index Fund 3
MSCI Brazil Index Fund 3
MSCI Taiwan Index Fund 1
FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund 1
MSCI Canada Index Fund 1
MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund 1
MSCI Sweden Index Fund 1
MSCI Spain Index Fund 1
MSCI Singapore Index Fund 1
MSCI Austria Index Fund 1
MSCI Mexico Index Fund 1
MSCI Belgium Index Fund 1
MSCI South Africa Index Fund 1
MSCI Netherlands Index Fund 1
MSCI France Index Fund 1

Strategy 3
Money Market 16.7%
Agriculture 16.7%
U.S. Long Bonds 16.7%
Industrial Materials 16.7%
Energy 16.7%
Emerging Markets 16.7%
U.S. REITs 0.0%
EAFE 0.0%
Precious Metals 0.0%
U.S. Large Cap 0.0%
U.S. Small Cap 0.0%
Intl Real Estate 0.0%

Volume

Isn't the 10 day moving average 18.06% below the 200 day moving average or are my math skills totally in the toilet? I put in pink and green bands to correspond roughly to what Goefert used as break points. I don't have on this chart is the slope of the S&P 500, but I believe it's 200 day ma started to decend beginning in mid January.

Week of 5-4-2008

Timing Model = .5
60% long, 40% cash

Global allocation of long positions
MSCI EAFE Index 30%
MCCI Emerging Markets Index 30%
Russell 3000 Index - U.S. 40%

Top U.S. Sectors
U.S. Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution 5.0
U.S. Oil & Gas 4.5
Precious Metals 4.0
U.S. Basic Materials 3.0
U.S. Biotechnology 2.5
U.S. Leisure Goods 2.0
Mid Cap Growth 2.0
U.S. Health Care 2.0

Top Intl. ETFs
S&P Latin America 40 Index Fund 3
MSCI Brazil Index Fund 3
MSCI Taiwan Index Fund 2
FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund 2
MSCI Canada Index Fund 1
MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund 1
MSCI Sweden Index Fund 1
MSCI Spain Index Fund 1
MSCI Hong Kong Index Fund 1
MSCI South Korea Index Fund 1
MSCI Singapore Index Fund 1
MSCI Austria Index Fund 1

Strategy 3
Money Market 12.5%
Agriculture 12.5%
U.S. Long Bonds 12.5%
Industrial Materials 12.5%
Energy 12.5%
Emerging Markets 12.5%
U.S. REITs 12.5%
EAFE 12.5%
Precious Metals 0.0%
U.S. Large Cap 0.0%
U.S. Small Cap 0.0%
Intl Real Estate 0.0%