Week of 3-30-2008

Timing Model = 1
70% long, 30% cash

Global allocation of long positions
MSCI EAFE Index 20%
MCCI Emerging Markets Index 30%
Russell 3000 Index - U.S. 50%

Top U.S. Sectors
U.S. Oil & Gas 6.0
U.S. Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution 5.0
Precious Metals 4.5
U.S. Basic Materials 4.0
U.S. Biotechnology 2.5
Composite Internet 2.0
U.S. Industrials 2.0
U.S. Semiconductor 2.0
U.S. Technology 2.0

Top Intl. ETFs
S&P Latin America 40 Index Fund 3
MSCI Taiwan Index Fund 2
MSCI Brazil Index Fund 2
MSCI Mexico Index Fund 2
MSCI Canada Index Fund 1
MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund 1
MSCI Spain Index Fund 1
MSCI Malaysia Index Fund 1
FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund 1

Strategy 3
Money Market 20.0%
Agriculture 20.0%
Precious Metals 20.0%
U.S. Long Bonds 20.0%
Industrial Materials 20.0%
Emerging Markets 0.0%
EAFE 0.0%
U.S. Large Cap 0.0%
U.S. Small Cap 0.0%
U.S. REITs 0.0%

The sentiment indicators have single handedly pushed my timing model to a point where the equity allocation is now at 70%. I still believe we've seen the intermediate low for the cycle and the market is more likely to head higher over the next several weeks...maybe longer.

Week of 3-23-2008

Timing Model = 0
50% long, 50% cash

Global allocation of long positions
MSCI EAFE Index 20%
MCCI Emerging Markets Index 30%
Russell 3000 Index - U.S. 50%

Top U.S. Sectors
U.S. Oil & Gas 6.0
U.S. Basic Materials 3.5
U.S. Semiconductor 3.0
U.S. Technology 3.0
U.S. Industrials 3.0
U.S. Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution 2.5
U.S. Consumer Goods 2.5
Precious Metals 2.5

Top Intl. ETFs
MSCI Taiwan Index Fund 3
S&P Latin America 40 Index Fund 2
MSCI Brazil Index Fund 2
MSCI Mexico Index Fund 2

Strategy 3
Money Market 25%
Agriculture 25%
Precious Metals 25%
U.S. Long Bonds 25%
Industrial Materials 0.0%
Emerging Markets 0.0%
EAFE 0.0%
U.S. Large Cap 0.0%
U.S. Small Cap 0.0%
U.S. REITs 0.0%

Classic bottom

Once again, I believe we're in the neighborhood of an intermediate low. The combination of sentiment models and momentum divergence gives a pretty strong case. Btw, I don't believe the bear market is over quite yet.

Week of 3-16-2008

Timing Model = -.5
40% long, 60% cash

Global allocation of long positions
MSCI EAFE Index 40%
MCCI Emerging Markets Index 20%
Russell 3000 Index - U.S. 40%

Top U.S. Sectors
U.S. Oil & Gas 5.5
U.S. Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution 5.5
U.S. Biotechnology 4.5
U.S. Basic Materials 4.0
Precious Metals 3.5

Top Intl. ETFs
S&P Latin America 40 Index Fund 3
MSCI Brazil Index Fund 3
MSCI Canada Index Fund 2
MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund 2
MSCI Spain Index Fund 2

Strategy 3
Money Market 25.0%
Agriculture 25.0%
Precious Metals 25.0%
Industrial Materials 25.0%
Emerging Markets 0.0%
EAFE 0.0%
U.S. Large Cap 0.0%
U.S. Small Cap 0.0%
U.S. Long Bonds 0.0%
U.S. REITs 0.0%

Week of 3-9-2008

Timing Model = -1
30% long, 70% cash

Global allocation of long positions
MSCI EAFE Index 40%
MCCI Emerging Markets Index 20%
Russell 3000 Index - U.S. 40%

Top U.S. Sectors
U.S. Oil & Gas 6.0
U.S. Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution 6.0
U.S. Biotechnology 5.0
Precious Metals 4.0
U.S. Basic Materials 4.0

Top Intl. ETFs
MSCI Canada Index Fund 3
S&P Latin America 40 Index Fund 2
MSCI Brazil Index Fund 2
MSCI Malaysia Index Fund 2
MSCI Taiwan Index Fund 2

Strategy 3
Money Market 25.0%
Agriculture 25.0%
Precious Metals 25.0%
Industrial Materials 25.0%
Emerging Markets 0.0%
EAFE 0.0%
U.S. Large Cap 0.0%
U.S. Small Cap 0.0%
U.S. Long Bonds 0.0%
U.S. REITs 0.0%

Week of 3-2-2008

Timing Model = -.5
40% long, 60% cash

Global allocation of long positions
MSCI EAFE Index 30%
MCCI Emerging Markets Index 20%
Russell 3000 Index - U.S. 50%

Top U.S. Sectors
U.S. Oil & Gas 6.0
U.S. Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution 6.0
Precious Metals 4.0
U.S. Basic Materials 4.0
U.S. Biotechnology 3.0

Top Intl. ETFs
S&P Latin America 40 Index Fund 3
MSCI Brazil Index Fund 3
MSCI Malaysia Index Fund 3
MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund 2
MSCI Canada Index Fund 2

Strategy 3
Money Market 25.0%
Agriculture 25.0%
Precious Metals 25.0%
Industrial Materials 25.0%
Emerging Markets 0.0%
EAFE 0.0%
U.S. Large Cap 0.0%
U.S. Small Cap 0.0%
U.S. Long Bonds 0.0%
U.S. REITs 0.0%