Week of 12-14-2008

Timing Model = -0.5
40% long, 60% cash

Global allocation of long positions
MSCI EAFE Index 30%
MCCI Emerging Markets Index 10%
Russell 3000 Index - U.S. 60%

Top U.S. Sectors
U.S. Pharmaceuticals 5.0
U.S. Consumer Goods 4.5
U.S. Health Care 4.0
U.S. Biotechnology 3.5
U.S. Oil & Gas 3.5
U.S. Telecommunications 3.0
Small Cap Value 2.5
U.S. Utilities 2.0

Top Intl. ETFs
MSCI Japan Index Fund 1
MSCI Malaysia Index Fund 1
FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund 1

Strategy 3
Money Market 50%
U.S. Long Bonds 50%

Strategy 4
U.S. Long Bonds 25%
Agriculture 25%
Precious Metals 25%
U.S. Large Cap 25%

My timing model slipped a little this week as one of the sentiment models I use touched a level suggesting high optimism. If we're at the early stages of an intermediate term rally I expect some backfilling as soon as this week.

The tape indicators haven't changed for months now. Until we see the market begin to flirt with their 75 day moving average, sentiment is all we have to go on.

Lastly, my sector model hasn't shown much rotation recently. Precious Metals are now in the top group but I'm not sure if this is only a temporary development.