Saturday, November 1, 2008

Week of 11-3-2008

Timing Model = +1.5
80% long, 20% cash

Global allocation of long positions
MSCI EAFE Index 20%
MCCI Emerging Markets Index 10%
Russell 3000 Index - U.S. 70%

Top U.S. Sectors
U.S. Consumer Goods 5.5
U.S. Health Care 5.0
U.S. Pharmaceuticals 5.0
U.S. Biotechnology 4.5
U.S. Telecommunications 2.5
Small Cap Value 2.0

Top Intl. ETFs
MSCI Switzerland Index Fund 1

Strategy 3
Money Market 50%
U.S. Long Bonds 50%

Strategy 4
U.S. Long Bonds 25%
Energy 25%
U.S. Small Cap 25%
U.S. Large Cap 25%

Sentiment reversals continue to give bullish signals even though the equity indices I watch are still a long way from their 75 day moving average. I'm anticipating some backfilling this week, but wouldn't be surprise if this market rockets past 1150 on S&P 500 sometime during the next few weeks. That's not prediction, but would be typical given current sentiment.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IWZ:IWV&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p00712566432

Value sector..mostly small...is showing up too in my rel str rankings. But, when I do a comparison on style, growth was the prior leader. Are the financials short covering, or whatever, giving small cap value a false rel str?
jasper

Tom K said...

You're guess is as good as mine, but Small Cap Value is the relative strength over the past 90, 180, and 250 days - the periods I use in my models:

http://tinyurl.com/6a4xkl

Tim said...

Do you think we'll see 800 or 1150 first? My guess is 800.

Tom K said...

My guess is 1150...only a guess.