Timing Model = -1.0
30% long, 70% cash
Global allocation of long positions
MSCI EAFE Index 20%
MCCI Emerging Markets Index 10%
Russell 3000 Index - U.S. 70%
Top U.S. Sectors
U.S. Pharmaceuticals 5.5
U.S. Health Care 5.0
U.S. Oil & Gas 5.0
U.S. Biotechnology 4.5
U.S. Utilities 4.5
U.S. Consumer Goods 4.0
Top Intl. ETFs
MSCI Malaysia Index Fund 3
MSCI Japan Index Fund 3
MSCI Switzerland Index Fund 3
Strategy 3
Money Market 50%
U.S. Long Bonds 50%
Strategy 4
U.S. Long Bonds 25%
Agriculture 25%
U.S. Small Cap 25%
U.S. Large Cap 25%
My timing model lost a couple points this past week as sentiment dipped back into extremely pessimistic levels. This development could be short-lived if we see the market begin to rally this week and next. Last week I hinted that an almost perfect double bottom seemed almost too good to believe, and it was. Hitting a new low was more in keeping with historical bottom formations but the price action was downright ugly.
You can probably guess I believe we're close to an intermediate bottom. Unfortunately my timing model has been at least five weeks early and I've paid for it. I'll be curious to see how things play out this week.
One note about this recession: My wife and I went furniture shopping this weekend and the showrooms seemed pretty crowded if you ask me. I realize we're entering the holiday shopping season but I've never bought nor received a piece of furniture for Christmas. I suppose anedotes like this don't matter much, but I see a huge disconnect between the "almost great depression recession" being reported by the MSM and my personal observations of parking lot, street, and store traffic. Apparently a lot of Americans haven't got the message they should be hunkered down in their homes.
Sunday, November 23, 2008
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1 comments:
I've been noting similar things. We go out to eat three times every weekend. and last week I had several business meetings over meals. In every case the places were very crowded.
We took the kids to watch Bolt this weekend and the movie theater was crowded.
Interestingly about four weeks ago I was noting that some places we frequent were less crowded than usual. I wonder if the price of oil and gas has something to do with it? or maybe the Holiday spirit.
what ever it is, does not feel anywhere near as bad as they make it out to be in the media.
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