Week of 11-16-2008

Timing Model = +1.0
70% long, 30% cash

Global allocation of long positions
MSCI EAFE Index 20%
MCCI Emerging Markets Index 10%
Russell 3000 Index - U.S. 70%

Top U.S. Sectors
U.S. Pharmaceuticals 5.5
U.S. Health Care 5.0
U.S. Biotechnology 4.0
U.S. Consumer Goods 4.5
U.S. Telecommunications 4.0
Small Cap Value 3.0
U.S. Oil & Gas 2.5

Top Intl. ETFs
MSCI Malaysia Index Fund 2
MSCI Japan Index Fund 2

Strategy 3
Money Market 50%
U.S. Long Bonds 50%

Strategy 4
U.S. Long Bonds 25%
Energy 25%
U.S. Small Cap 25%
U.S. Large Cap 25%

As expected my timing model ticked down a bit this week to 70% long. The reversal in sentiment we've seen over the past few weeks hasn't resulted in a sustained rally, and we continue to bounce around in the 850-1000 range. Given the technically oversold conditions and year end seasonality, I'm still expecting higher prices over the next 6 weeks. It's hard for me to fathom the market hasn't digested and discounted most of the bad news. Also, the fact that governments are throwing truckloads of cash at their ecomomies has to eventually result in at least a short term lifejacket.