I think so.
The combination of recent market action (multiple selling climaxes) and favorable sentiment readings (short term indictors are OS, and the intermediate term indicators are rising from OS) spell a rally based on my experience.
I just took a couple decent sized positions in 2x funds but will be using a mental stop 1% below the recent lows in case I'm wrong.
Is the bull market over? No, I don't believe so, but bear market rallies should be expected and can be taken advantaged of if you're both patient and nimble.
Thursday, February 7, 2008
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
2 comments:
hi tom,
put-call ratio is still rising.(see link below) Do you wait for a sentiment number like this one to peak and change course or are you willing to take a risk at peak levels? Nice to see you still posting here. I occasionally check waiting for the rest of you sentiment indicators. Personally, feeling tempted to go long as you did, but would rather wait for more confirmation. Care to share which double longs? thx/jasper
http://stockcharts.com
/h-sc/ui?s=$CPC&p=D&yr=1&mn
=0&dy=0&id=p65544967642
Jasper,
Generally speaking I wait for a sentiment reversal. What I'm seeing right now is a lot of intermediate term sentiment indicators reversing while the short term indicators are spiking.
Btw, here's another look at the put-call ratio. http://tinyurl.com/2deg9l
I'm using good ol ULPIX and UAPIX right now. When using a counter trend hedge I typically like to go with a style/cap that is performing best during reversals. This time I'm split between large and small, but I'll stay away from Nasdaq 2x funds.
Take a look at a 90day version of this perf chart: http://tinyurl.com/yv8erq
Small caps are typically more volatile but if you use the sliders you will notice they are gaining in RS recently.
Also compare the Nasdaq performance on bounces. Not very compelling imo.
Post a Comment