Saturday, January 12, 2008

Week of 1-13-2008

Timing Model = -1.0
30% long, 70% cash
10 day moving average: 9% long, 91% cash

Global allocation of long positions
MSCI EAFE Index 30%
MCCI Emerging Markets Index 30%
Russell 3000 Index - U.S. 40%

Top U.S. Sectors
U.S. Oil & Gas 5.5
U.S. Health Care 5.5
Precious Metals 4.5
U.S. Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution 4.0
U.S. Basic Materials 4.0
U.S. Utilities 4.0

Top Intl. ETFs
MSCI Brazil Index Fund 3
MSCI Malaysia Index Fund 3
MSCI Hong Kong Index Fund 2
S&P Latin America 40 Index Fund 2
MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund 2

Strategy 3
Emerging Markets 20.0%
Money Market 20.0%
Industrial Materials 20.0%
Agriculture 20.0%
Precious Metals 20.0%
EAFE 0.0%
U.S. Large Cap 0.0%
U.S. Small Cap 0.0%
U.S. Long Bonds 0.0%
U.S. REITs 0.0%
Given the state of the sentiment indicators I follow, I believe we are very close to some sort of bottom (short or intermediate term). My model has just ticked up to -1.0 and is very close to gaining more points via the sentiment components.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

$cpc...has continued to be a single indicator worth predicting risk-reward...but, sure would like to have a means to back test w/hard data. Remain interested in knowing your sentiment indicators, scorings,etc.
jasper
good luck to all in this very tough mkt.

Tom K said...

Hopefully I'll have more time to resume posting on my models over the coming weeks. I just got back in town yesterday.