Week of 12-23-2007

Timing Model = -2.0
10% long, 90% cash
10 day moving average: 16% long, 84% cash

Global Allocation of long positions
MSCI EAFE Index 30%
MCCI Emerging Markets Index 30%
Russell 3000 Index - U.S. 40%

Top U.S. Sectors
U.S. Technology 6.5
U.S. Oil & Gas 5.0
U.S. Basic Materials 4.5
U.S. Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution 4.5
U.S. Leisure Goods 3.5
Precious Metals 3.0
Composite Internet 3.0

Top Intl ETFs
S&P Latin America 40 Index Fund 3
MSCI Brazil Index Fund 3
MSCI Hong Kong Index Fund 3
FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund 2
MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund 2
MSCI Spain Index Fund 2

Strategy 3
Emerging Markets 16.7%
Money Market 16.7%
Industrial Materials 16.7%
Agriculture 16.7%
Precious Metals 16.7%
EAFE 16.7%
U.S. Large Cap 0.0%
U.S. Small Cap 0.0%
U.S. Long Bonds 0.0%
U.S. REITs 0.0%

Sorry for the late post. Been traveling during the holidays and haven't had time to get online until now.

Week of 12-16-2007

Timing Model = -2.0
10% long, 90% cash
10 day moving average: 36% long, 64% cash

Global Allocation of long positions
MSCI EAFE Index 30%
MCCI Emerging Markets Index 30%
Russell 3000 Index - U.S. 50%

Top U.S. Sectors
U.S. Oil & Gas 5.0
U.S. Technology 5.0
U.S. Basic Materials 3.5
U.S. Health Care 3.0
Precious Metals 3.0
U.S. Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution 3.0
Composite Internet 3.0
U.S. Utilities 2.5
U.S. Semiconductor 2.5


Top Intl ETFs
S&P Latin America 40 Index Fund 3
MSCI Brazil Index Fund 3
FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund 3
MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund 3
MSCI Hong Kong Index Fund 3
MSCI Germany Index Fund 3
MSCI Pacific ex-Japan Index Fund 2
MSCI Australia Index Fund 2
MSCI Spain Index Fund 2
MSCI Malaysia Index Fund 2


Strategy 3
Emerging Markets 20.0%
Money Market 20.0%
Industrial Materials 20.0%
Agriculture 20.0%
Precious Metals 20.0%
EAFE 0.0%
U.S. Large Cap 0.0%
U.S. Small Cap 0.0%
U.S. Long Bonds 0.0%
U.S. REITs 0.0%

I decided to add a 10 day moving average of my long/cash allocation because my timing model can bounce around quite a bit when the indices are close to both their 75 day and 200 day moving averages.

One interesting development this week - the EAFE index just dipped below it's 200 day moving average leaving only 5 long sectors in my Strategy 3 system.

Week of 12-9-2007

Timing Model = 0
50% long, 50% cash


Global allocation of long positions
MSCI EAFE Index 30%
MCCI Emerging Markets Index 30%
Russell 3000 Index - U.S. 40%

Top U.S. Sectors
U.S. Technology 4.5
U.S. Oil & Gas 4.0
U.S. Basic Materials 4.0
Composite Internet 4.0
U.S. Semiconductor 3.5
U.S. Health Care 3.0
U.S. Utilities 3.0
Precious Metals 3.0
U.S. Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution 2.5


Top Intl ETFs
S&P Latin America 40 Index Fund 3
MSCI Brazil Index Fund 3
FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund 3
MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund 3
MSCI Pacific ex-Japan Index Fund 3
MSCI Hong Kong Index Fund 3
MSCI Australia Index Fund 3
MSCI Spain Index Fund 3
MSCI Germany Index Fund 3
MSCI South Africa Index Fund 3


Strategy 3
EAFE 14.3%
Emerging Markets 14.3%
Money Market 14.3%
Industrial Materials 14.3%
Agriculture 14.3%
Precious Metals 14.3%
U.S. Large Cap 14.3%
U.S. Small Cap 0.0%
U.S. Long Bonds 0.0%
U.S. REITs 0.0%

Trend Indicator Composite

In this chart I plotted the 4 trend indicators scores I use vs. the S&P 500 over the past year and a half. The composite oscillates from +4, when every indicator is positive, to -4, when every indicator is negative. There's nothing all that remarkable here; trend indicators reflect the "trend" of the market. However, note the readings in early 2007. The composite never dipped below zero even though the market got slammed pretty hard.

Trend Indicators aren't very impressive during bull markets. They typically dictate keeping money off the table when markets offer the greatest opportunities. Trend indicators provide their real value during bear markets, when stocks are taking a beating.

Week of 12-2-2007

Timing Model= -1.0%
30% long, 70% cash


Allocation of long positions

MSCI EAFE Index 30%
MCCI Emerging Markets Index 30%
Russell 3000 Index - U.S. 40%


Top U.S. Sectors

U.S. Basic Materials 5.0
U.S. Biotechnology 4.0
U.S. Health Care 4.0
U.S. Oil & Gas 3.5
U.S. Technology 3.5
Composite Internet 3.0
Precious Metals 3.0
U.S. Utilities 3.0


Top Intl. ETFs

S&P Latin America 40 Index Fund 3
MSCI Brazil Index Fund 3
FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund 3
MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund 3
MSCI Pacific ex-Japan Index Fund 3
MSCI Hong Kong Index Fund 3
MSCI Australia Index Fund 3
MSCI Spain Index Fund 3
MSCI Germany Index Fund 3


Strategy 3

EAFE 16.7%
Emerging Markets 16.7%
Money Market 16.7%
Industrial Materials 16.7%
Agriculture 16.7%
Precious Metals 16.7%
U.S. Large Cap 0.0%
U.S. Small Cap 0.0%
U.S. Long Bonds 0.0%
U.S. REITs 0.0%