Timing Model = 1.5
80% long, 20% cash
Global allocation of long positions
MSCI EAFE Index 30%
MCCI Emerging Markets Index 30%
Russell 3000 Index - U.S. 40%
Top U.S. Sectors
U.S. Semiconductor 3.0
U.S. Technology 3.0
U.S. Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution 3.0
Mid Cap Growth 2.5
U.S. Biotechnology 2.5
U.S. Micro Cap 2.0
Composite Internet 2.0
Top Intl. ETFs
MSCI Hong Kong Index Fund 2
MSCI Brazil Index Fund 2
MSCI All Country Asia ex Japan Index Fund 2
S&P Latin America 40 Index Fund 2
FTSE China (HK Listed) Index Fund 2
MSCI Singapore Index Fund 2
Strategy 3
Money Markets 11%
Emerging Markets 11%
Precious Metals 11%
Industrial Materials 11%
EAFE 11%
Energy 11%
U.S. Small Caps 11%
Internatiional Real Estate 11%
U.S. Large Cap 11%
Strategy 4
Emerging Markets 25%
Precious Metals 25%
Industrial Materials 25%
EAFE 25%
Not much has changed since last week. I'm still focused on the S&P 500 and it's relationship to it's 75 and 200 day moving average. Sentiment is still slightly negative but will be less of a factor over the coming weeks. The tape is critical here.
Sunday, July 5, 2009
Sunday, June 28, 2009
Week of 6-28-2009
Timing Model = 1.5
80% long, 20% cash
Global allocation of long positions
MSCI EAFE Index 30%
MCCI Emerging Markets Index 30%
Russell 3000 Index - U.S. 40%
Top U.S. Sectors
U.S. Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution 4.0
U.S. Biotechnology 3.0
U.S. Semiconductor 2.0
U.S. Micro Cap 2.0
U.S. Financials 2.0
Composite Internet 2.0
Top Intl. ETFs
MSCI Hong Kong Index Fund 3
MSCI Brazil Index Fund 2
MSCI All Country Asia ex Japan Index Fund 2
S&P Latin America 40 Index Fund 2
FTSE China (HK Listed) Index Fund 2
FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund 2
Strategy 3
Emerging Markets 11%
Precious Metals 11%
Industrial Materials 11%
EAFE 11%Energy 11%
U.S. Small Caps 11%
Agriculture 11%
International Real Estate 11%
U.S. Large Cap 11%
Strategy 4
Emerging Markets 25%
Precious Metals 25%
Industrial Materials 25%
EAFE 25%
Not much has changed since last week, except a few asset class are getting close to their 75/200 day moving average. Large cap U.S. is just one example.
Watching the tape is very important right now. Weakness in prices will force my model to roll back in exposure. However, residual overly optimistic sentiment will also back off. I wouldn't be at all suprised to see equities bounce around for a while without making a huge move in either direction, only to resume the upward trend. There is a real danger of being under exposed right now. When new bull markets make their first move up, there are many skeptics.
80% long, 20% cash
Global allocation of long positions
MSCI EAFE Index 30%
MCCI Emerging Markets Index 30%
Russell 3000 Index - U.S. 40%
Top U.S. Sectors
U.S. Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution 4.0
U.S. Biotechnology 3.0
U.S. Semiconductor 2.0
U.S. Micro Cap 2.0
U.S. Financials 2.0
Composite Internet 2.0
Top Intl. ETFs
MSCI Hong Kong Index Fund 3
MSCI Brazil Index Fund 2
MSCI All Country Asia ex Japan Index Fund 2
S&P Latin America 40 Index Fund 2
FTSE China (HK Listed) Index Fund 2
FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund 2
Strategy 3
Emerging Markets 11%
Precious Metals 11%
Industrial Materials 11%
EAFE 11%Energy 11%
U.S. Small Caps 11%
Agriculture 11%
International Real Estate 11%
U.S. Large Cap 11%
Strategy 4
Emerging Markets 25%
Precious Metals 25%
Industrial Materials 25%
EAFE 25%
Not much has changed since last week, except a few asset class are getting close to their 75/200 day moving average. Large cap U.S. is just one example.
Watching the tape is very important right now. Weakness in prices will force my model to roll back in exposure. However, residual overly optimistic sentiment will also back off. I wouldn't be at all suprised to see equities bounce around for a while without making a huge move in either direction, only to resume the upward trend. There is a real danger of being under exposed right now. When new bull markets make their first move up, there are many skeptics.
Sunday, June 21, 2009
Week of 6-19-2009
Timing Model = 1.5
80% long, 20% cash
Global allocation of long positions
MSCI EAFE Index 30%
MCCI Emerging Markets Index 30%
Russell 3000 Index - U.S. 40%
Top U.S. Sectors
U.S. Semiconductor 3.5
Composite Internet 3.5
U.S. Biotechnology 4.0
U.S. Technology 2.5
U.S. Health Care 2.5
U.S. Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution 1.5
U.S. Leisure Goods 1.5
Top Intl. ETFs
MSCI Brazil Index Fund 2
MSCI All Country Asia ex Japan Index Fund 2
S&P Latin America 40 Index Fund 2
MSCI Austria Index Fund 2
MSCI Pacific ex-Japan Index Fund 2
Strategy 3
Emerging Markets 11%
Precious Metals 11%
Industrial Materials 11%
Energy 11%
EAFE 11%
U.S. Small Caps 11%
Agriculture 11%
International Real Estate 11%
U.S. Large Cap 11%
Strategy 4
Emerging Markets 25%
Precious Metals 25%
Industrial Materials 25%
Energy 25%
I apologize for not posting last week. I didn't have internet access and the only time I have to update this blog lately is on weekends.
Not much has changed timing-wise. Sentiment is slightly more bearish, but the price indices I track are still over their 75 and 200 day moving average. You'll also notice most asset classes I track are above their 200 day moving average.
The thing to watch over the coming weeks is the possibility of the broader market falling below their 75/200 day moving average.
80% long, 20% cash
Global allocation of long positions
MSCI EAFE Index 30%
MCCI Emerging Markets Index 30%
Russell 3000 Index - U.S. 40%
Top U.S. Sectors
U.S. Semiconductor 3.5
Composite Internet 3.5
U.S. Biotechnology 4.0
U.S. Technology 2.5
U.S. Health Care 2.5
U.S. Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution 1.5
U.S. Leisure Goods 1.5
Top Intl. ETFs
MSCI Brazil Index Fund 2
MSCI All Country Asia ex Japan Index Fund 2
S&P Latin America 40 Index Fund 2
MSCI Austria Index Fund 2
MSCI Pacific ex-Japan Index Fund 2
Strategy 3
Emerging Markets 11%
Precious Metals 11%
Industrial Materials 11%
Energy 11%
EAFE 11%
U.S. Small Caps 11%
Agriculture 11%
International Real Estate 11%
U.S. Large Cap 11%
Strategy 4
Emerging Markets 25%
Precious Metals 25%
Industrial Materials 25%
Energy 25%
I apologize for not posting last week. I didn't have internet access and the only time I have to update this blog lately is on weekends.
Not much has changed timing-wise. Sentiment is slightly more bearish, but the price indices I track are still over their 75 and 200 day moving average. You'll also notice most asset classes I track are above their 200 day moving average.
The thing to watch over the coming weeks is the possibility of the broader market falling below their 75/200 day moving average.
Sunday, June 7, 2009
Week of 6-5-2009
Timing Model = 2.0
90% long, 10% cash
Global allocation of long positions
MSCI EAFE Index 20%
MCCI Emerging Markets Index 30%
Russell 3000 Index - U.S. 50%
Top U.S. Sectors
U.S. Biotechnology 3.5
Composite Internet 3.0
Precious Metals 3.0
U.S. Health Care 3.0
U.S. Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution 2.0
U.S. Oil & Gas 1.5
U.S. Technology 1.5
U.S. Mobile Telecommunications 1.5
U.S. Semiconductor 1.5
Top Intl. ETFs
MSCI Brazil Index Fund 2
MSCI All Country Asia ex Japan Index Fund 2
MSCI South Korea Index Fund 2
MSCI Singapore Index Fund 2
MSCI Canada Index Fund 2
MSCI South Africa Index Fund 2
Strategy 3
Precious Metals 11%
Emerging Markets 11%
Agriculture 11%
Industrial Materials 11%
Energy 11%
EAFE 11%
U.S. Small Caps 11%
Internatiional Real Estate 11%
U.S. Large Cap 11%
Strategy 4
Precious Metals 25%
Emerging Markets 25%
Agriculture 25%
Industrial Materials 25%
Sorry about not posting last week - I've been very busy lately.
The tape is calling the tune right now. Both the Value Line Composite and S&P500 indices are about their 75 and 200 day moving averages. Sentiment is still exhibiting some over optimism, but not as much as you might think.
Markets are unpredictable and I would have thought we would have seen some significant backfilling during the last few weeks, but that never came to pass. At this point I have now gut-feel as to where equities will go, which isn't a bad thing. My timing model has been cautious, and any retracement could quickly reduce long positions.
If I was forced to guess I would say we saw the bottom of the bear already, but that doesn't mean there is a lot of upside from here.
90% long, 10% cash
Global allocation of long positions
MSCI EAFE Index 20%
MCCI Emerging Markets Index 30%
Russell 3000 Index - U.S. 50%
Top U.S. Sectors
U.S. Biotechnology 3.5
Composite Internet 3.0
Precious Metals 3.0
U.S. Health Care 3.0
U.S. Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution 2.0
U.S. Oil & Gas 1.5
U.S. Technology 1.5
U.S. Mobile Telecommunications 1.5
U.S. Semiconductor 1.5
Top Intl. ETFs
MSCI Brazil Index Fund 2
MSCI All Country Asia ex Japan Index Fund 2
MSCI South Korea Index Fund 2
MSCI Singapore Index Fund 2
MSCI Canada Index Fund 2
MSCI South Africa Index Fund 2
Strategy 3
Precious Metals 11%
Emerging Markets 11%
Agriculture 11%
Industrial Materials 11%
Energy 11%
EAFE 11%
U.S. Small Caps 11%
Internatiional Real Estate 11%
U.S. Large Cap 11%
Strategy 4
Precious Metals 25%
Emerging Markets 25%
Agriculture 25%
Industrial Materials 25%
Sorry about not posting last week - I've been very busy lately.
The tape is calling the tune right now. Both the Value Line Composite and S&P500 indices are about their 75 and 200 day moving averages. Sentiment is still exhibiting some over optimism, but not as much as you might think.
Markets are unpredictable and I would have thought we would have seen some significant backfilling during the last few weeks, but that never came to pass. At this point I have now gut-feel as to where equities will go, which isn't a bad thing. My timing model has been cautious, and any retracement could quickly reduce long positions.
If I was forced to guess I would say we saw the bottom of the bear already, but that doesn't mean there is a lot of upside from here.
Monday, May 25, 2009
Week of 5-24-2009
Timing Model = 0.5
60% long, 40% cash
Global allocation of long positions
MSCI EAFE Index 30%
MCCI Emerging Markets Index 30%
Russell 3000 Index - U.S. 40%
Top U.S. Sectors
Precious Metals 3.5
U.S. Biotechnology 3.0
U.S. Health Care 2.5
U.S. Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution 2.5
U.S. Pharmaceuticals 2.5
U.S. Consumer Goods 2.0
Composite Internet 1.5
U.S. Mobile Telecommunications 1.5
Top Intl. ETFs
MSCI Brazil Index Fund 2
MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund 2
MSCI All Country Asia ex Japan Index Fund 2
MSCI Taiwan Index Fund 2
MSCI South Korea Index Fund 2
S&P Latin America 40 Index Fund 2
MSCI Austria Index Fund 2
Strategy 3
Money Market 16.7%
Precious Metals 16.7%
Emerging Markets 16.7%
Industrial Materials 16.7%
EAFE 16.7%
Agriculture 16.7%
Strategy 4
Precious Metals 25%
Emerging Markets 25%
Agriculture 25%
Industrial Materials 25%
60% long, 40% cash
Global allocation of long positions
MSCI EAFE Index 30%
MCCI Emerging Markets Index 30%
Russell 3000 Index - U.S. 40%
Top U.S. Sectors
Precious Metals 3.5
U.S. Biotechnology 3.0
U.S. Health Care 2.5
U.S. Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution 2.5
U.S. Pharmaceuticals 2.5
U.S. Consumer Goods 2.0
Composite Internet 1.5
U.S. Mobile Telecommunications 1.5
Top Intl. ETFs
MSCI Brazil Index Fund 2
MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund 2
MSCI All Country Asia ex Japan Index Fund 2
MSCI Taiwan Index Fund 2
MSCI South Korea Index Fund 2
S&P Latin America 40 Index Fund 2
MSCI Austria Index Fund 2
Strategy 3
Money Market 16.7%
Precious Metals 16.7%
Emerging Markets 16.7%
Industrial Materials 16.7%
EAFE 16.7%
Agriculture 16.7%
Strategy 4
Precious Metals 25%
Emerging Markets 25%
Agriculture 25%
Industrial Materials 25%
Monday, May 18, 2009
Week of 5-17-2009
Timing Model = 0.5
70% long, 30% cash
Global allocation of long positions
MSCI EAFE Index 30%
MCCI Emerging Markets Index 30%
Russell 3000 Index - U.S. 40%
Top U.S. Sectors
U.S. Health Care 3.5
U.S. Biotechnology 3.0
Composite Internet 2.5
U.S. Pharmaceuticals 2.5
U.S. Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution 2.0
Precious Metals 2.0
U.S. Oil & Gas 1.5
Top Intl. ETFs
MSCI Brazil Index Fund 2
MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund 2
MSCI All Country Asia ex Japan Index Fund 2
MSCI Taiwan Index Fund 2
MSCI Sweden Index Fund 2
MSCI Singapore Index Fund 2
FTSE China (HK Listed) Index Fund 2
FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund 2
MSCI South Korea Index Fund 2
MSCI Hong Kong Index Fund 2
Strategy 3
Money Market 20%
Precious Metals 20%
Emerging Markets 20%
Industrial Materials 20%
EAFE 20%
Strategy 4
Precious Metals 25%
Emerging Markets 25%
Agriculture 25%
Industrial Materials 25%
70% long, 30% cash
Global allocation of long positions
MSCI EAFE Index 30%
MCCI Emerging Markets Index 30%
Russell 3000 Index - U.S. 40%
Top U.S. Sectors
U.S. Health Care 3.5
U.S. Biotechnology 3.0
Composite Internet 2.5
U.S. Pharmaceuticals 2.5
U.S. Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution 2.0
Precious Metals 2.0
U.S. Oil & Gas 1.5
Top Intl. ETFs
MSCI Brazil Index Fund 2
MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund 2
MSCI All Country Asia ex Japan Index Fund 2
MSCI Taiwan Index Fund 2
MSCI Sweden Index Fund 2
MSCI Singapore Index Fund 2
FTSE China (HK Listed) Index Fund 2
FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund 2
MSCI South Korea Index Fund 2
MSCI Hong Kong Index Fund 2
Strategy 3
Money Market 20%
Precious Metals 20%
Emerging Markets 20%
Industrial Materials 20%
EAFE 20%
Strategy 4
Precious Metals 25%
Emerging Markets 25%
Agriculture 25%
Industrial Materials 25%
Sunday, May 10, 2009
Week of 5-10-2009
Timing Model = 0.5
60% long, 40% cash
Global allocation of long positions
MSCI EAFE Index 20%
MCCI Emerging Markets Index 30%
Russell 3000 Index - U.S. 50%
Top U.S. Sectors
Precious Metals 3.0
U.S. Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution 2.5
U.S. Pharmaceuticals 2.5
U.S. Health Care 2.0
U.S. Biotechnology 2.0
U.S. Consumer Services 1.5
Mid Cap Growth 1.5
Top Intl. ETFs
MSCI Brazil Index Fund 2
MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund 2
MSCI All Country Asia ex Japan Index Fund 2
MSCI Taiwan Index Fund 2
MSCI Sweden Index Fund 2
MSCI Singapore Index Fund 2
Strategy 3
Money Market 20%
Precious Metals 20%
Emerging Markets 20%
Industrial Materials 20%
EAFE 20%
Strategy 4
Precious Metals 25%
Emerging Markets 25%
Industrial Materials 25%
EAFE 25%
Not much has changed in my models recently. Intermediate term sentiment is signaling over optimism, and my trend indicators are mostly positive. I get the feeling everyone is looking for a pull back, but when will it happen? Nobody knows.
60% long, 40% cash
Global allocation of long positions
MSCI EAFE Index 20%
MCCI Emerging Markets Index 30%
Russell 3000 Index - U.S. 50%
Top U.S. Sectors
Precious Metals 3.0
U.S. Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution 2.5
U.S. Pharmaceuticals 2.5
U.S. Health Care 2.0
U.S. Biotechnology 2.0
U.S. Consumer Services 1.5
Mid Cap Growth 1.5
Top Intl. ETFs
MSCI Brazil Index Fund 2
MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund 2
MSCI All Country Asia ex Japan Index Fund 2
MSCI Taiwan Index Fund 2
MSCI Sweden Index Fund 2
MSCI Singapore Index Fund 2
Strategy 3
Money Market 20%
Precious Metals 20%
Emerging Markets 20%
Industrial Materials 20%
EAFE 20%
Strategy 4
Precious Metals 25%
Emerging Markets 25%
Industrial Materials 25%
EAFE 25%
Not much has changed in my models recently. Intermediate term sentiment is signaling over optimism, and my trend indicators are mostly positive. I get the feeling everyone is looking for a pull back, but when will it happen? Nobody knows.
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